Has China compromised its long-term strategic discipline?

The image tweeted by Chinese Government spokesman Zhao Lijian in 2020.

I was rather surprised when China's spokesman Zhao Lijian tweeted the image above. My reading of Mao Tse-Tung seemed pretty straightforward in terms of a long-term strategy for China. Even during the changes brought about by Deng Xiaoping in the 1990s that led to having a foot in both camps (socialist/capitalist), it was not an undoing of Mao's strategy.

For example, Mao warned that by 2001 China would be a great socialist industrial country, but:

...we must be modest - not only now, but forty-five years hence as well. We should always be modest. In our international relations, we Chinese people should get rid of great-power chauvinism resolutely, thoroughly, wholly and completely. "In Commemoration of Dr. Sun Yat-sen" (November 1956). 

It was certainly the case that following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Deng Xiaoping seemingly adapted Mao's strategy to changing circumstances, in that:

It is perfectly true that we should learn from the good experience of all countries, socialist or capitalist, about this there is no argument. 

Further, and although not blindly trusting the West, there was no strategic intention by Mao to start a war:

As for the imperialist countries, we should unite with their people and strive to coexist peacefully with those countries, do business with them and prevent a possible war, but under no circumstances should we harbour any unrealistic notions about them.

So what has brought about the change in China's strategy? Today, I was fortunate enough to be able to pose this question to New York Times columnist, Thomas Friedman, at a Sydney Institute event:

 

It was interesting that Friedman couldn't work it out either. It just doesn't make any sense. I would argue that China has messed up its foreign and strategic policy, perhaps echoing Mao's warnings against great-power chauvinism. The discipline that China sustained for the last eight decades is impressive, yet it has been so readily undone in just a few short years. 

For me, at least, it justifies Australia's strategic policy response, and the world has changed yet again. What an interesting period of history to have witnessed.

Will Australia's Nuclear-powered Submarines Negate the Regional Bomber Concept?

The Rockwell B1-B Lancer Bomber. Photo by USAF [Public Domain].

Australia's F-111 strike aircraft was a major element in defending the sea-air gap to Australia's north. The RAAF's F-35A Lightning II fifth-generation fighter and the stop-gap F/A-18F Super Hornet provide an up-to-date air force.

RAAF F-111s during Exercise Kangaroo '81 [Public Domain]

But without a long-range capability, I couldn't help but think our ability to deter a would-be attacker was rather anemic. That all changed with the decision to develop a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines as part of the new AUKUS trilateral security partnership.

The nuclear-powered Virginia class attack submarine has been touted as an option for the RAN.
Photo by DVIDSHUB [CC BY 2.0]

But what about the regional bomber concept that has been touted as another possibility for commanding the sea-air approaches to Australia?

This week I attended a live YouTube webinar hosted by the Centre for Independent Studies featuring the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's Peter Jennings. I was able to ask Peter the question: Do nuclear-powered submarines negate the need for a regional bomber concept to fill the sea-air gap capability left by the retirement of the F-111s?

Here is his thoughtful response:

The B1-R concept adopts the United States' retired B1 Lancer bombers and converts them to an Australian variant that has the potential to reinstate the lost sea-air gap capability.

For more information on the regional bomber concept, this article by Stephen Kuper (2020) sets it out well: Supporting allied long-range strike: Reviving the B-1R regional bomber concept. 

Developing a Professional Narrative: One of My Own

Lake Pejar, Upper Lachlan Shire, NSW, 13 March 2021.

My point here is to demonstrate to my students why I think a personal narrative is so important. While I don't pretend to have achieved any notable measure of success, I can say faithfully that I have achieved everything I dreamt I would. But like Lily Tomlin:

All my life I always wanted to be someone. I see now I should have been more specific.

But my own journey has provided enough lessons that I am confident I can convey those lessons to my students in a way that is either meaningful now or at some 'aha!' moment in the future. At least I can hope. Oh, wait, the Stoics were not big fans of hope... but I digress.

Keswick, Gunning NSW. Built by the Caldwell brothers in 1926.

I always wanted to work in Canberra as an academic. But first, I wanted to be a fighter pilot (I became an army officer and qualified as an air contact officer - so close!); to be some kind of member of the clergy to study theology (I became a local officer in a Salvation Army corps - deputy bandmaster and Songsters leader - my family has a long history with the Salvos dating back to the 1890s in Guyra); to be a senator (I decided a long time ago that I do not have the wherewithal to be a politician); and to be a political scientist. But I was more specific. I wanted to be a political scientist in Canberra but live in the NSW regions somewhere around Canberra. In a federation house (my great-grandparents' federation house in Haberfield was amazing).

And now that's exactly what I do. I measure my level of satisfaction y the way I wake up in the morning. If I leap out of bed ready to tackle the day's challenges, it's all good. But I vowed never to keep doing the same old thing if I woke up thinking 'By God, I cannot stand this job!' I had that experience when I was 19 and I took a chance and resigned that day. I joined the Army Reserve and did all sorts of casual jobs and, two attempts later, I marched into Duntroon.

Air Contact Officer course 1996, RAAF Base Williamtown just before calling in F/A-18 ground attack missions marked by my artillery battery at Singleton Military Area.

My point is not to suggest that I am any model of success - far from it - but that I wrote down what I wanted years ago and it has slowly materialised. Not necessarily easily or through good management, but it has all transpired. I remember sitting in the scrub at Shoalwater Bay Training Area imagining I was doing my PhD at ANU, being supervised by Professor John Wanna, who was one of the authors of my textbook, Davis, G., J. Wanna, J. Warhurst and P. Weller. (1993). Public Policy in Australia. Second Edition. Sydney: Allen & Unwin. 

I liked John's writing style and in 2013, I graduated with a PhD in Political Science from ANU with John as my supervisor. The key point is not that it happened, but that it was a part of my narrative, my story.

My 1993 policy studies textbook at Deakin Uni in 1994 with my signed copy of John's first edition.

To cut a long story short (and to reserve a few things that are for me!), below is a recent narrative I wrote about why I was applying for a committee role - and who I am, and what I stand for - which is what I am asking my students to do this semester.

Description of the candidate and their reasons for nominating:

Description of the Candidate

Dr Michael de Percy FCILT is Senior Lecturer in Political Science at the Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the Australian National University, a Bachelor of Philosophy (Honours) from the University of Canberra, and a Bachelor of Arts from Deakin University. He is a graduate of the Royal Military College, Duntroon, where he received the Royal Australian Artillery prize. He is a Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport, and he is an editor of the Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy. Michael’s research focuses on the scholar-practitioner nexus in the disciplines of transport and telecommunications policy, comparative politics, historical institutionalism, government-business relations, and leadership. His recent publications include Politics, Policy and Public Administration in Theory and Practice: Essays in honour of Professor John Wanna, ANU Press, 2021 (with Andrew Podger and Sam Vincent); Populism and a New World Order (in Viktor Jakupec et. al. Rethinking Multilateralism in Foreign Aid, Routledge 2020); and Road Pricing and Provision: Changed Traffic Conditions Ahead, ANU Press 2018 (with John Wanna). Michael's research articles have been published in Policy Studies, the Australian Journal of Social Issues, the Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy, the Australasian Transport and Research Forum, and Public Administration Today. His expert commentary has been published in The Australian, ABC's The Drum, The Canberra Times, The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, John Menadue’s Pearls and Irritations Public Policy Journal, and The Conversation, and he has also appeared on numerous television and radio news programs. Michael teaches government-business relations, political leadership, and professional development subjects for social scientists in a Bachelor of Politics and International Relations degree, and he also teaches leadership in MBA programs in Australia and overseas. Michael's blog Le Flâneur Politique (ISSN 2652-8851) and podcast on his research, teaching, and community engagement activities are available at www.politicalscience.com.au and you can follow him on twitter @madepercy.

Reasons for Nominating

Following a career change in my early thirties, I fulfilled a long-held wish to become a political scientist. Political science has fascinated me since primary school after winning a politics competition and missing class to attend a local council meeting. I have been hooked ever since. I have political party committee and campaigning experience at the local, state, and federal levels. I attended my first APSA conference in 2004 as an honours student and I have remained involved in APSA as much as I have been financially able over the years. As my career has progressed, I have become more involved in conferences and other activities, including the APSA Teaching and Learning Group and contributing to the APSA-inspired Australian Politics and Policy project through Sydney University Press. I am now at a stage in my career where I can give back to my profession, and I am putting myself forward as a candidate for the position of Ordinary Member on the APSA Executive Committee. I bring to the committee over thirty years' experience in committee work, leadership, and strategic planning and I have a strong desire to see political science in Australia continue to increase its relevancy to citizens, governments, and businesses, and also to promote the study of politics by potential students at all levels. My pedagogical approach is based on my experience as a first-in-family university degree recipient, and I see the study of political science not only as a way to learn more about the world that we live in, but also to develop oneself in the liberal arts tradition, learning not only to become more aware of our own calling but also to become more vigilant and enlightened citizens. I am now in a position to represent the discipline and the Australian Political Studies Association faithfully, and I offer my service to you.@madepercy.

The Outcome?

I lost. I doubt our 'narratives' were the compelling reasons people voted for their preferred candidate. But the reflective aspect remains useful, in that we can create our story and live it.

Sun Tzu said:

Can you imagine what I would do if I could do all that I can?

Or consider the (allegedly) Harley Davidson advertisement:

When Writing The Story Of Your Life, Don’t Let Anyone Else Hold The Pen

The point is that it is up to you. And if you don't like your story, you have the power to re-write it.