Nobody hates light rail, but it's not going to fix Canberra's transport woes

Nobody hates light rail, but it's not going to fix Canberra's transport woes

With suburbs growing at Yass, Goulburn, Gunning, Murrumbateman, Sutton, Gundaroo, and elsewhere in the regions surrounding the ACT, the light rail is barely a drop in the ocean in solving Canberra's transport problem.

For those who can no longer afford to buy a house in the ACT, the NSW regions provide ample opportunity for cheaper housing for those who work in Canberra and are happy to commute.

My latest in The Canberra Times, Nobody hates light rail, but it's not going to fix Canberra's transport woes.

My latest in @canberratimes: https://t.co/aHSAk3iNBX

— Dr Michael de Percy (@FlaneurPolitiq) February 25, 2025

Light Rail in Canberra

Does Canberra's light rail solve the ACT's transport problem?

Recently, I presented on light rail, electric buses, and the transport problem in Canberra for the University of the Third Age at Goodwin Village, Farrer. My slides are available below.

EV Manufacturing Data: Reducing emissions or virtue signalling?

Chemetall Footr Lithium Operation, Nevada

EV virtue signalling is the act of driving around in an electric vehicle feeling smug about one's environmental credentials without having a clue about the carbon emissions produced in the manufacture of EVs in different jurisdictions. EV use is a good thing when it is fit for purpose, but to force everybody to drive an EV is a dangerous precedent, especially when the environmental credentials of EV manufacturing leave much to be desired.

I discussed the models and data used to determine the CO2 emissions produced by the manufacture of EVs recently with Alexandra Marshall on Spectator TV.

Are electric vehicles 🚗 actually 'green'? I have my doubts...

"Destroying the environment to save the environment is 'kind of okay' [in the world of #NetZero]. Killing koalas is okay if it's for wind turbines but not for a coal mine."@SpectatorOz columnist Michael de Percy… pic.twitter.com/swbS4OTONa

— Alexandra Marshall (@ellymelly) April 5, 2024

Transport Options for South Canberra

Electric buses provide a low-emissions, flexible, and affordable way to improve transport outcomes

Tonight I was invited by the Woden Valley Community Council's South Canberra Transport Forum to discuss the cost of light rail in Canberra and falling per capita public transport boardings and electric buses to improve transport outcomes while reducing CO2 emissions.

My slides from the event are below.

70 per cent of EV data is made up

Are EVs as environmentally friendly as their proselytizers insist?

Evangelistic EV drivers tell me that as an academic, I should know better. They are unimpressed when I do not support their confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias is where we look for, and find, data that supports our beliefs. Nowhere is this more prolific than in trying to understand the comparative CO2 emissions produced in the manufacture of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICE) versus electric vehicles (EV).

The comparison can help us to understand the whole-of-life carbon emissions of ICE versus EVs.

This morning's Spectator Australia Morning Double Shot newsletter read as follows:

Your scribe is writing from Gundagai, on a road trip from Melbourne to Sydney. For no real reason besides relieving boredom, I’ve taken to counting Teslas on my long drives, because aesthetically they’re very distinctive and easy to spot. Yesterday, between home and Gundagai I counted 99: on a similar trip late last year it was exactly 100 all the way between Sydney’s eastern suburbs and bayside Melbourne. The point of this nerdy observation is that a steadily-increasing number of people with more bucks than brains are channelling their green virtue signalling by buying EVs, convinced by the government-sponsored ballyhoo that they’re doing their bit for reducing carbon emissions. Michael de Percy, however, has been poring over EV-related data and concludes the claims for their greenness are overrated, inflated, or just made up, especially if one includes the humongous carbon emissions involved in their manufacture as well as operation.

My latest in The Spectator Australia, 70 per cent of EV data is made up.

70 per cent of EV data is made up | #NetZero
-----------

Are these things really as green as politicians say they are?

It takes 15,000 tonnes of CO2 to mine 1,000 tonnes of lithium required for batteries. Reports indicate that building an #EV emits 80 per cent more CO2 than a… pic.twitter.com/cMJFMDbiJz

— The Spectator Australia (@SpectatorOz) April 1, 2024

Light Rail in Canberra

Canberra's light rail service currently runs from Gungahlin to Civic

Below are the slides from my presentation to the Rotary Club of Canberra Burley Griffin at the Commonwealth Club on 21st March 2024.

Canberra Times: Tram poses a question on housing

My op-ed in The Canberra Times, 8 January 2024, p. 17

Those Canberrans who do not want to live in high-density housing are making choices that the ACT government cannot control. Canberra's green vision underpinned by high-density housing along a tramway is not for everyone it seems.

The tram is asking Canberrans to make a large compromise.

I wish to ask a serious question: do Canberrans really want to live in high-density housing?https://t.co/iowBSIfGuB

— Le Flâneur Politique (@FlaneurPolitiq) January 8, 2024

Canberra should be a hothouse for 'green' transport skills

Japanese-made electric bus on display at the Osaka Mobility Show, 8 December 2023.

Transport Minister Chris Steel has advised that we will have to wait until after the ACT election for the business case for stage 2B of the tram network. But with the ACT Government’s tram project central to reducing emissions, why are we waiting? Is light rail really the environmental panacea it is cracked up to be? We need to be focusing on developing local skills, rather than relying on a privatised tram network to take care of Canberra’s future.

My latest article in The Canberra Times, available here: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8456049/why-canberra-should-develop-workers-green-transport-skills/?cs=14246.

It's economically unjustifiable to extend Canberra's light rail network

Trams are old-fashioned. Electric buses are cheaper and more flexible. 

The IMF recently advised Australian governments to slow down infrastructure spending to curb inflation.

The alternative is to leave the heavy lifting to home owners with mortgages. The latest interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank delivers a potent message to light rail pundits: can Canberra afford to push on?

My latest op-ed in The Canberra Times: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8424781/its-economically-unjustifiable-to-extend-canberras-light-rail-network/?cs=14329.

Opinion: It's economically unjustifiable to extend Canberra's light rail networkhttps://t.co/w1KxGMjyQC

— Canberra Times (@canberratimes) November 19, 2023

 

Let’s focus on fixing potholes

The Viral Titanic Pothole Meme

From The Spectator's "Double Shot" newsletter:

Michael de Percy makes a salient point with the most prosaic of examples. Make our governments get out of identity politics, rent-seeking and pursuing the ideological agendas of the few, and get back to providing reliable services for the many – starting with fixing potholes. It’s a message that should be heeded by all three levels of our government.

Here is my latest article in The Spectator Australia's Flat White, Fixing potholes is a policy we can all agree on.

Fixing potholes is a policy we can all agree on

Imagine if councils actually did what they were paid for - fixing potholes and taking out the garbage instead of moaning about the date of Australia Day.

Would the world be a better place?https://t.co/HWErBzcyop

— The Spectator Australia (@SpectatorOz) October 30, 2023

Albo gives EV drivers a free ride

EVs relaxing at Chernobyl

It is no secret that federal fuel excise revenues have been in decline for years, and something needs to be done about it. In fact, along with prominent transport industry experts, we wrote a book about it some five years ago. But the High Court, in a 4/3 split decision, has landed the problem in the Albanese government’s lap. What they do about it will impact us for decades to come.

Here is my latest article in The Spectator Australia's Flat White, Albo gives EV drivers a free ride.

Albo gives EV drivers a free ride

It is no secret that federal fuel excise revenues have been in decline for years, and something needs to be done about it.

How do we make sure EV drivers pay their fair share without a fuel excise?https://t.co/Vn5FbdQ2yX

— The Spectator Australia (@SpectatorOz) October 26, 2023

Old-fashioned light rail costs more to go slowly to fewer places

Dr Michael de Percy at the Canberra Metro light rail terminus

Burley Griffin’s 1911 award-winning design for Canberra envisaged mass transit in the form of electric trams. At the time, the major capital cities in Australia had electric trams to bring workers into the CBD from the suburbs. But in 1926, as the national capital prepared to host Parliament, the first public bus services began operating in Canberra. Buses provided cheap, reliable, flexible, and fast public transport that didn’t require the expensive and inflexible infrastructure needed to operate trams. The bus was a modern technological innovation that soon made the tram obsolete in most of the other capital cities.

My op-ed in the Canberra Times, Sunday 22nd October 2023, p. 25 https://t.co/GHrT0lBn7u

— Le Flâneur Politique (@FlaneurPolitiq) October 22, 2023

ACT Liberals and Light Rail: Too little too late?

 

Old School "Light Rail" (trams) in Hong Kong. [Michael de Percy CC BY-ND-SA 4.0]

My comments on the ACT Liberals' election plan to oppose further development of light rail in the ACT and the challenges of alternatives such as "trackless trams" and related sunk costs, on ABC Radio Canberra this morning. From 1:07:00.

T-LOG2022 Technical Visits: Incheon National University

Gyeongin Ara Waterway Logistics Complex, 21 September 2022.

I attended the 9th International Conferences on Transport and Logistics (T-LOG2022) at the Graduate School of Logistics at the Incheon National University. I chaired the panel on the Shipping and Port Industry and then participated in a day of technical site visits.

Entrance to Incheon National University.

The site visits commenced with an introduction to the Incheon Free Economic Zone.

Korean Air Cargo Terminal, Incheon International Airport, 21 September 2022.

The logistics solution to the free trade zone's transfer of air freight in the Korean Air Cargo Terminal was interesting and hectic!

Inside the Korean Air Cargo Terminal, 21 September 2022.

We then went from the airport to the entrance to the canal that connects Incheon International Airport to Gimpo International Airport. The canal doubles as a way to drain the nearby flood plain.

Gyeongin Ara Waterway.

Connecting the Han River to the Yellow Sea had been planned hundreds of years before Korea had the earthmoving technology to make it a reality. The result was the Gyeongin Ara Waterway, completed in 2012.

Looking toward the Yellow Sea.

Lunch was a traditional Korean affair. Thank you, Incheon National University and T-LOG! That was an excellent event!

Traditional Korean Meal. A bit tough on the old knees!

We also visited the Ara Skywalk which juts out over the canal.

Looking down while standing on the Ara Skywalk.

The weather was great!

View from the Ara Skywalk.

The technical site visits finished at the Ara Marina Gimpo.

Briefing at the Ara Marina Gimpo.

What are the possibilities for hydrogen?

Speaking at the CILT International Congress, 25th October 2022.

Here are the notes from my presentation with John Poljak from keynumbers to the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport's International Conference 2022 at the Grand Ballroom of the Hyatt Regency, Perth, WA. The conference was held over the period 23-26 October 2022. 

The presentation focused on the policy aspects of hydrogen and addressed the following issues:

• Why hydrogen?
• Does hydrogen plug the renewables gap?
• From high to low density means more volume to move!
• Is hydrogen cost effective?
• Hydrogen: Where is it at?
• The policy landscape and hydrogen.

Speaking at the CILT World Congress in Perth, 25th October 2022.

The slides from our presentation are available below:

One of the highlights of the conference was the guest speaker at the Gala Dinner on the evening of 25th October. Rosco McGlashan OAM, "the fastest Aussie on earth" (500mph land speed record holder), spoke about his love for speed and his forthcoming 1,000mph attempt at the land speed record in Aussie Invader 5R. I was fortunate enough to meet him. 

Rosco McGlashan OAM (left) wth Dr Michael de Percy (right)

I said to Rosco, "I'll be your reserve driver!"
To which Rosco replied, "Nah, Mate, you'd probably trash it!"
What a legend! Godspeed, Rosco!

Contemporary Issues in Multimodal Transport(ation) Planning

Transport Modes, Hong Kong, 17 June 2007.

Recently, I delivered a guest lecture on contemporary issues in transport for the "Emerging Crises in Multi-modal Transport and Digital Transformation and Smart Supply Chain” for AcademyGlobal's CILT International Diploma students.

I adopted an approach to conceptualising multimodal transport and some of the issues that are invariably experienced by liberal democracies where political and property rights restrict optimal solutions, resulting in 'satisficing' different interest groups in building infrastructure.

A video recording of my guest lecture is available below:

The presentation slides are available below:

References

De Percy, M.A. (2018). Road pricing and road provision in Australia: Where are we and how did we get here? In Michael de Percy and John Wanna (Eds.) Road Pricing and Provision: Changed Traffic Conditions Ahead. Canberra: ANU Press.

De Percy, M.A. and Batainah, H.S. (2019). Government-Business Relations: Senior Version. In Chen, P. et al. Australian Politics and Policy. Sydney: Sydney University Press.

Shepherd, A.F. (2008). Stumbling towards nation-building: Impediments to progress. In John Butcher (Ed.) Australia Under Construction: Nation building past, present and future. Canberra: ANU E Press.

The Hydrogen Fuel Discussion: What's the Buzz?

Hydrogen Fuel Station Sign [Source: Bexim CC BY-SA 4.0] 

On 7th December 2021, I was invited to join John Poljak of keynumbers to discuss some of the issues around hydrogen fuel and its potential impacts on transport and logistics. There is quite a buzz about hydrogen as a clean and abundant fuel to help to reduce carbon emissions. 

But for the general transport enthusiast, there is not much information available. John and I were invited to the Annual General Meeting of the Victorian Chapter of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILTA) to address some of the 'known knowns' and 'known unknowns' of hydrogen and its policy implications.

John has developed a wonderful discussion tool he calls "Key Numbers" to allow groups to brainstorm and spitball various "what if" scenarios by drawing on relevant data, or the key numbers' of various scenarios. 

John has some twenty years of experience in the offshore energy industry and really knows what he is talking about, especially when it comes to the statistics and presenting these in a digestible way for lay audiences. He is the brains behind the operation of keynumbers and did all of the legwork for our presentation.

We used keynumbers in our presentation to the ACT Chapter of CILTA via MS Teams at the Department of Infrastructure in Canberra on 11th October 2021 entitled Road Pricing and Electric Vehicles: Where to from here? John demonstrated how various fuel efficiencies compared with the Victorian and NSW governments' decisions to adopt a 2.5 cents per kilometre charge for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles compared with the fuel excise which is currently set at 43.3 cents per litre as at August 2021.

A video recording of the presentation is below:

 

The slides we used for the presentation are below. If the recording of the session is available, I will add it to this post at a later date.

The Hydrogen Fuel Discussion from University of Canberra

Background Reading

Australian Renewable Energy Agency: https://arena.gov.au/renewable-energy/hydrogen/.

Bordoff, J. & O’Sullivan, M.L. (2021). Green Upheaval: The New Geopolitics of Energy, Foreign Affairs, January/February.

Department of Industry, Science Energy and Resources. Australia's Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan: https://www.industry.gov.au/data-and-publications/australias-long-term-emissions-reduction-plan.

Department of Industry, Science Energy and Resources. Growing Australia's hydrogen industry: https://www.industry.gov.au/policies-and-initiatives/growing-australias-hydrogen-industry. 

Hydrogen Fuels Australia: https://www.hydrogenfuelsaustralia.com.au/.

Greber, J. (2021). Reality check for Morrison and Taylor’s golden ticket to net zero. Australian Financial Review, 18 November.

International Energy Agency (2019). The Future of Hydrogen: Seizing today’s opportunities. Report for the government of Japan, June.

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (2021). Hydrogen Fuel Basics. US Department of Energy.

University of Sydney (2021). What you need to know about hydrogen energy. 22 January.

M5 Incident: Myriad Aspects to Regulation and Road Safety

 

M5 Incident 28th October 2021. Photo by Michael de Percy CC BY-ND 4.0

Recently, while driving at 100 km/h on the M5, I saw a box on the road ahead. I assumed it was a cardboard box, an item that routinely appears on the M5. Instead, the box was made of checker plate and was full of tools. I saw the vehicle two ahead of me swerve so I moved over as far to the right as possible to avoid the object. But the vehicle in front of me struck the toolbox, causing the tools and spray paint in the box to hit the front of my vehicle. You can see the rest in the video. I did not add the soundtrack, I was listening to the stereo at the time. I stopped the vehicle, got out to check the driver was OK but then grabbed my phone and called 000 while checking for fuel leaks and smoke before approaching the vehicle. As I opened the door of the ute, the diver popped his seatbelt, scrambled out, and stood up next to me. I asked if he was alright and he said "I think so!" That was a lucky day on so many counts.

The next day I found my dashcam had recorded the incident. I hope this helps improve road safety or helps to educate others in any way that improves road safety in Australia. After commuting between Sydney and Gunning for the last two years on a frequent basis, I can say that driver arrogance and over-confidence on our highways are potential killers. But in the video below, this factor was absent. Fortunately, the B-Double missed the ute. Fortunately, nobody was driving like a lunatic. But add an arrogant and aggressive driver to the mix, and you do the math. It's pretty clear. I am so glad I was not being tailgated at the time.

The toolbox had apparently fallen off a new vehicle that had had professional modifications made to it. This brings into question the regulation of light commercial vehicle modifications. Heavy vehicles and their modifications are regulated and audited. But light commercial vehicles appear to exist in a regulatory void that may need addressing. To be sure, there are many lessons to be drawn from this incident, and I hope to report on some of the educational activities that might derive from this particular incident.

Here's the dashcam video:

Road Pricing and Electric Vehicles: Where to from here?

A road use charge on EVs is not a disincentive [Source: Mariordo, CC BY-SA 2.0]

Details for this event are available here: https://ciltinternational.org/events/road-pricing-and-electric-vehicles-where-to-from-here/.

Please note I will be updating this article over the next few days to provide more of the detail behind our presentation at CILTA in Canberra entitled "Road Pricing and Electric Vehicles: Where to from here" on 12th October 2021 with John Poljak, the founder of www.keynumbers.com.

The slides from our presentation are available below:

Road Pricing and Electric Vehicles: Where to from here? from University of Canberra

Background reading

Dossor, R. (2015). Revenue from road use. Parliamentary Library Briefing Book - 45th Parliament. Canberra: Parliamentary Library. https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departmen ts/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p/FundingRoads. 

Model of Critical Junctures

See my paper with Stephen Darlington from the AusPSA Conference 2021 here: https://www.politicalscience.com.au/2021/09/apsa-2021-conference-paper.html.

EV Road Use Charge: What's happening now?

Victoria: Road use charges of 2.5c/km (Victoria) on zero and low-emissions vehicles (ZLEVs) from 1 July 2021 (equivalent to fuel exercise charges). Note that conventional hybrids are not considered to be ZLEVs. Source: https://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/registration/registration-fees/zlev-road-user-charge.

NSW: 2.5 cents per km (indexed) for electric vehicles and 2 cents per km (i.e. 80% of EV charge, indexed) for plug-in hybrid vehicles, by 1 July 2027 or when EVs reach 30% (whichever comes first). Source: https://www.nsw.gov.au/initiative/nsw-governments-electric-vehicle-strategy/road-user-charge 

SA: $3,000 subsidy with 2 cents per km (indexed) for plug-in hybrid vehicles, and 2.5 cents per km (indexed) for any other electric vehicles, by 1 July 2027 or 30% (as per NSW)

Timing

Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (2019) Road User Charging for Electric Vehicles. URL: https://infrastructure.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/Road-User-Charging-for-Electric-vehicles-1.pdf.

Introducing a road user charge for electric vehicles is a home run reform. It represents a win-win for infrastructure users and taxpayers. But there is a catch – reform must be delivered soon.

keynumbers

• Headline versus reality: Keynumbers https://keynumbers.com
• Signal versus noise: EV road use charge 2.5c/km versus ICE Fuel excise at $0.427/litre
• Australia as a laggard? See Canada (which manufactures EVs) (comparative data)
• London congestion charging does not reduce congestion in the same way a distance-based charge, so not a panacea for congestion management
• NSW toll roads – M4
• Rome – surge pricing fast lanes

Incentives

KPMG Canada (2021):

“For those already inclined to buy an EV, they were motivated by environmental concerns, lower operating costs, tax incentives, and the prospect of reduced insurance premiums. For them, tax incentives were much less of an incentive than the environment or lower operating costs”.

Other incentives:

• Investment in charging infrastructure
• Reductions in registration fees
• Reductions in stamp duty and other purchasing-related subsidies
• ‘Soft’ loans 

Disincentives

Range anxiety:  https://www.chasingcars.com.au/news/electric-vehicles/we-test-five-electric-cars-until-they-die-in-an-australian-ev-range-test-model-3-kona-leaf-zs-ev-and-e-tron-tested/.

KPMG Canada (2021) (replicated findings of Electric Vehicle Council 2020):

“The main reasons cited by those planning to buy a vehicle but not an EV are the high cost (60 per cent); limited driving range [range anxiety] (51 per cent); lack of charging infrastructure (50 per cent); dubious battery lifespan (30 per cent), limited model options (24 per cent); and recharging time (24 per cent).

• 83 per cent of Canadians believe the auto makers should be required to invest in a national charging infrastructure.
• 89 per cent want EV charging stations installed at "every gas station" as well as shopping malls and grocery stores.
• 61 per cent say the pandemic made them realize that they need a vehicle. They said they would rather drive than take public transport.”

See: Electric Vehicle Council in partnership with carsales (2021). Consumer Attitudes Survey 2021. URL: https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/2021-EVC-carsales-Consumer-attitudes-survey-web.pdf.

Particulate emissions

OECD. https://www.oecd.org/environment/measures-needed-to-curb-particulate-matter-emitted-by-wear-of-car-parts-and-road-surfaces.htm.

Advocacy since 2015

• Based on understanding of technological inventions as critical junctures
• "Road Users Must Pay, Sooner Rather Than Later", The Conversation, 16 June 2015.
• "Toll war revs up: Sydney drivers face congestion tax or road user-pay system", The Sunday Telegraph, 12 July 2015.
• Getting serious on roads reform is one way our political leaders can get back on track, The Conversation, 25 August.
• De Percy, M.A. and Wanna, J. (Eds.) (2018). Road Pricing and Provision: Changed Traffic Conditions Ahead. Canberra: ANU Press. DOI: http://doi.org/10.22459/RPP.07.2018.
• Road user fee a step to reform: Those who drive petrol-fuelled cars are subsidising drivers of electric vehicles. The Australian, 25 November 2020. 
• Pearls and Irritations https://johnmenadue.com/road-pricing-must-start-with-electric-vehicles/ 

Stop comparing Australia's EV uptake with Norway's

 

REVAi electric vehicles in Oslo, Norway, in 2010. Photo by Mic via Flickr [CC BY 2.0]

Numerous lobby groups, transport journalists, academics, and even political satirists have argued that Australia should follow Norway's example in encouraging the take-up of electric vehicles. 

But even the Secretary General of the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association admits it would be difficult for other countries to emulate Norway's approach:

Despite the success of Norway’s methods, she doesn’t believe other countries can replicate it like-for-like because their circumstances will be different.

From an Australian perspective, Norway's uptake of electric vehicles is similar to Switzerland's uptake of broadband: a geographically small country with a small population able to quickly take advantage of local particularities - what I have referred to in the past as "varieties of particularism" - which include:

the unique social, political, economic, technological and geographical peculiarities that exist at the nexus of government, business and... technolog[y].

My concept is derived from what Thomas P. Hughes referred to as regional "cultures" in his work Networks of Power: Electrification in Western Society, 1880-1930, which looked at how different regional characteristics led to different systems for generating electricity.

Nevertheless, it is difficult to have a point of view that differs from what I reluctantly refer to as "green-left ideology" about EV policy at the moment, especially when it comes to comparing infrastructure policy with other jurisdictions. I suspect there are powerful industry groups encouraging these approaches, too. But for the green-left, at least, aspiration trumps evidence in all things except tradition and religion, it would seem. 

Nonetheless, there is much more to the EV story.

The front page of The Sydney Morning Herald on 12th May 2021 quotes NSW Planning Minister Rob Stokes, warning:

Although [electric vehicles] are powered by more efficient and sustainable power sources, they are still cars. Painting them green does not change that reality.

Stokes also mentioned that heavier and more "torquey" EVs could potentially release more non-exhaust particulate emissions than conventional vehicles. This issue has been identified by the OECD as an increasingly important public health policy issue as the number of vehicles in cities (of all types) continues to rise.

I am not suggesting that EVs are as polluting as conventional vehicles - far from it. But in addition to particulate emissions, overall emissions depend on how the electricity is generated. 

The majority of Norway's electricity is generated from hydropower (93.4%) with the remainder generated by wind and thermal power. Whereas coal accounts for 75% of Australia's electricity generation, with gas at 16% and the remaining 7% provided by hydro and wind power.

Further, Norway is much smaller than Australia and much wealthier on a per capita basis. Canada provides a much better "fit" in terms of the "most similar" method of comparison on geographical, cultural, and political grounds. The table below indicates the differences between all three countries on these measures:

Comparison of Norway, Australia and Canada. Data sources below.

Australia and Canada are similar on the most basic demographic statistics, and Norway is no bigger or more densely populated than greater Sydney but it is substantially wealthier with greater access to Europe's EV market. 

Canada has its own EV manufacturing industry and is not subject to the same restrictions that Norway is likely to face in the near future if Europe's EV market contracts. On the other hand, Australia has an issue with supply and consumer choice in EVs which is likely to be exacerbated by important issues arising from the pandemic.

Can the less than 1% uptake of EVs in Australia and Canada be the result of a lack government incentives? Canada has introduced federal cash rebates to promote EV sales, yet the uptake in Canada is not expected to meet federal targets set for 2025. To argue that government incentives alone is the problem is to draw a long bow.

One of the major issues for the EV industry, especially in large, sparsely populated countries like Australia and Canada, is consumers' perceptions of EV's range. 

Research conducted by KPMG in Canada found that EV purchases were motivated primarily by environmental concerns and lower operating costs. While incentives for purchasing EVs were desirable, other concerns about the higher purchase cost, reliability of batteries, long charging times, and doubts about the ability to travel long distances and access to relevant charging infrastructure were the major reasons motorists were reluctant to purchase an EV. 

The Electric Vehicle Council of Australia arrived at similar findings to the Canadian experience. Of note is "range anxiety", with some 79% of consumers estimating the average range of EVs to be well under 400km. The EV Council suggests that ranges can vary from 260km to 650km. But this is significantly less than the ranges of most modern conventional vehicles.

Range anxiety is very real in Australia and Canada with both countries ranking in the top five longest national highways in the world. 

Most importantly, however, is that traffic congestion in Norway is still a major concern, with the supply of roads confirming the old adage that increasing the supply of roads leads to increasing demand. This issue alone more than justifies NSW Planning Minister Rob Stokes' concerns about EVs.

I am not against EVs and I have no interest in hindering their uptake. But comparing Australia with Norway is oversimplified, unjustified, and inherently lacking in rigour. If we were to take Canada as a more appropriate example, then there is much more than just policy at play.

Until "range anxiety" can be ameliorated by improvements in EV technology and EV-ready infrastructure (especially for fast recharging), then those who rely on long-distance car travel are unlikely to be persuaded to buy an EV.

The logical conclusion in the short run, then, is that government subsidisation is likely to benefit the relative few by contributing to traffic congestion at taxpayers' expense (and indeed without contributing to the fuel excise) until EV technology improves.

In Australia, EVs are not the panacea for greenhouse gas emissions and may actually contribute to them if EV charging increases demand on Australia's predominantly non-renewables electricity generation system.

To add insult to injury, subsidising EV ownership without incorporating an appropriate road user charge will only exacerbate the problem of traffic congestion. In this regard, Victoria is on the right track.

For NSW, Transport Minister Andrew Constance is in a difficult position and must deal with the EV lobby while also fitting in with Planning Minister Stokes' and NSW Treasurer Dominic Perrottet's plans to introduce a distance-based tax on EVs.

Politics will decide the outcome and it will not be neat and tidy. In the meantime, looking to Norway is unlikely to address the real reasons behind Australia's slow uptake of EVs. 

Data Sources

Australian Statistics: 

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2020). Motor Vehicle Census, Australia. See: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/tourism-and-transport/motor-vehicle-census-australia/latest-release.

Schmidt, B. (2020). How many electric cars are there in Australia, and where are they? The Driven. See: https://thedriven.io/2020/12/23/how-many-electric-cars-are-there-in-australia-and-where-are-they/.

Canadian Statistics:

Electric Autonomy (2021). New Canadian EV sales figures from Statistics Canada show strong recovery in Q3 2020, following sharp lockdown dip. See: https://electricautonomy.ca/2021/02/11/canadian-ev-sales-data-q3-2020/.

Statistics Canada (2020). Automotive Statistics. See: https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/topics-start/automotive.

Statistics Canada (2021). Zero-emission vehicles in Canada, third quarter of 2020. See: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-627-m/11-627-m2021012-eng.htm.

Norwegian Statistics:

Statistics Norway (2021). Registered Vehicles. See: https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/landtransport/statistikk/bilparken