How to ensure Labor wins the next election

Splintering the vote will undo Menzies’ legacy

The outcome of elections has little to do with supporters of the major parties. Historically, the party that forms government is decided by those who defect from the Coalition. Those who move further left remain within the radical Labor or Greens camps. Unlike the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) of the 50s and 60s, it is unlikely that left-leaning groups would preference the Coalition. This means that those conservatives who move away from the Coalition effectively hand government to Labor.

Labor governments are much like the Teals and other left-leaning independents. They rarely win on first preferences. In practice, Labor governments do not receive a mandate, especially where first preference votes are concerned. The preferential voting system means that deviations in voters’ party loyalties, particularly on the right, helps Labor to win government.

Writing in the Unfiltered newsletter, Alexandra Marshall had this to say:

Speaking of the election, Michael de Percy brings a rather controversial opinion to the table, arguing that we risk undoing Menzies’ legacy if the conservative vote is split between minor parties on the right.

My latest in The Spectator Australia, How to ensure Labor wins the next election.