Impossible business growth underpins house of cards Budget

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National Press Club address by Dr Jim Chalmers, Treasurer, National Press Club, 26 March 2025

From Parliament House, Canberra: Last year Australia experienced record numbers of business failures. While the percentage of businesses was not as high as in 2013, the actual number of failed businesses was higher. Further, productivity growth, a key driver of living standards, has been negative and remains flat. Yet underpinning this election budget is a rebound in private sector growth that is difficult to justify.

Writing in the Unfiltered newsletter, Alexandra Marshall had this to say:

On the Budget, Michael de Percy was down at Parliament House today listening to Treasurer Jim Chalmers being questioned – but he didn’t get to ask his... Which is a shame, because I’m willing to bet Mr Chalmers would visibly squirm trying to answer it. You can read all about it here.

Writing in the Morning Double Shot newsletter, Terry Barnes had this to say:

Fresh from the Budget lock-up, Michael de Percy highlights how the Budget assumptions about private sector growth, and its ability to contribute to the revenue bottom line, are probably too good to be true. If so, the huge spending already locked in plus to be announced in the election campaign will incur even larger debt, and thus deficit, to cover the magic pudding profligacy that now has largely been endorsed by both sides.

My latest in The Spectator Australia, Impossible business growth underpins house of cards Budget.

Regional Australians are the biggest budget losers

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Treasurer Dr Jim Chalmers, Great Hall, Parliament House, 26 March 2025

From the Canberra Press Gallery: Regional Australia is the engine room of private sector activity in Australia. With the Budget set to see a reversal of the public sector’s growth that has hidden the real cost of living pressures experienced by most Australians, it is difficult to see how the Budget’s public sector and Net Zero focus will help the regions. To put it another way, regional Australians are the biggest losers in this Budget, with no relief in sight.

The night before I went into the Budget Lockup in Parliament House, Alexandra Marshall had this to say in the Unfiltered newsletter:
Of course, we have the Budget release and Speccie writer Michael de Percy has volunteered his sanity to go down and be part of the lockup. If you’re not already, follow us on Facebook where we’ll keep you updated. Michael is going to be looking for the crazy, infuriating, and outrageous detail in Chalmer’s major work that everyone else has missed. 
Writing in the Morning Double Shot newsletter before I went into the Budget Lockup, Terry Barnes had this to say:
Today is Budget day, and the Albanese government’s spendathon is tipped to continue. I see from Alexandra Marshall’s Unfiltered newsletter that our gallery correspondent Michael de Percy is going into the media lock-up to pore over the Budget papers, so you don’t have to. In the meantime, he’s written about what he doesn’t want to see in the Budget, and how the Albanese government weak leadership in economic policy is costing Australia dear as we become less efficient and productive. Meanwhile, Alexandra herself is flabbergasted at the brazenness of the Prime Minister’s latest pre-election handout.

The day after my article was released, Terry Barnes wrote in the Morning Double Shot newsletter:

Our man in the Budget lock-up, Michael de Percy, ran his acute political eye over the Budget, with a particular focus on how Chalmers’s effort will go down in regional Australia, where Labor needs to shore up support in areas like the Hunter, while pushing down Coalition support in regional Queensland, Tasmania, and elsewhere. Here is his report, and there’ll be more later today. 

Even our illustrious Editor-in-Chief, Rowan Dean, shared the joy:
It was quite the adventure for a first-time Press Gallery journalist, and it was great to be part of the Spectator Australia team!

My latest in The Spectator Australia, Regional Australians are the biggest budget losers.

Ranty Snippets

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My first Ranty Snippet on @SpectatorOz Facebook Page
 

We can’t afford Albo’s phoney election campaign

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Asking a question at the National Press Club address, 19 March 2025

From the National Press Club: Australia is in a phoney election campaign. We’re in that period where we know an election must be held by May 17 at the latest, but no election has been announced. The last day for the government to announce the election is April 14. The government must then enter caretaker mode and cannot make any major decisions. In my opinion, the Albanese government is deliberately using its position to campaign at public expense in the meantime.

My latest in The Spectator Australia, We can’t afford Albo’s phoney election campaign.

Paying for elections every three years is worth it

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Imagine another year of this government?
 

There’s an old joke about divorces. Do you know why they’re so expensive? Because they’re worth it.

Elections are no different. Mr Albanese wants four-year fixed terms. Apparently, Mr Dutton used to want four-year terms but then he didn’t, and now he does again.

Four-year terms might make their job easier. It might also save us some $60 billion in the next two decades. But do voters really want the federal government to have four years to mess with us? Or is it worth $3 billion each year to make our politicians work harder for us?

Writing in the Unfiltered newsletter, Alexandra Marshall had this to say:

What do you reckon – give politicians an extra year in power? Albanese and Dutton are keen for four-year fixed terms, and it would save $60 billion over two decades, but Michael de Percy writes with a warning when it comes to extending the lifespan of the federal government. What do you think, is the risk worth the saving?

Writing in the Morning Double Shot newsletter, Terry Barnes had this to say:

A recent think tank paper suggested that Australia moving from three to four-year electoral terms would save taxpayers $60 billion in direct and indirect costs over 20 years. Michael de Percy will have none of that. Three-year terms are more democratic he says. ‘If our governments really suck, they can be ended sooner’, pointing out that four-year lower house terms means eight-year Senate terms for all the crossbench fruit loops in the unrepresentative swill. But four-year terms also mean more reform and less playing to the peanut gallery, and some relief from the endless campaigning of three-year terms. If the Constitution must be amended on terms, why not make it a fixed four-year term for both Reps and Senate? That at least would keep the riff-raff factor down, especially if, at the same time, the nexus is broken between the size of the two Houses, so the Senate can be cut down to size and proportional representation with too-low quotas doesn’t throw up a clutch of numpties.

My latest in The Spectator Australia, Paying for elections every three years is worth it.

Podcast interview with Leighton Smith

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My interview on the Leighton Smith Podcast, New Zealand
 

Leighton Smith Podcast #276 - March 19th 2025 - Michael De Percy

March 19, 2025 • 100 mins

Dr Michael De Percy is a Senior Lecturer in Political Science at the University of Canberra. He graduated from both the Australian National University and the Royal Military College, Duntroon.  

He was also appointed to the Australian Research Council’s College of Experts in 2022. 

Sound interesting? I can only say that if he’d been my lecturer at ANU, I might well have chosen a different career path. Listen below.


Simon says Teals keen for costly minority government

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Simon Holmes a Court at the National Press Club, 12 March 2025

From the National Press Club: The disdain for conservatives was palpable in Simon Holmes à Court’s address at the National Press Club in Canberra on March 12. It is interesting that the son of Robert Holmes à Court, Australia’s first billionaire (known as the ‘Great Acquirer’), appears less aggressive in business than he is politics.

Holmes à Court sees the Liberal Party as a great, big ‘carbon bomb’ that will go off if the Coalition are able to form a majority government later this year.

The Teals and the Greens have, in my opinion, the potential to fracture the left much like the conservative parties are fracturing the right. Naturally, both sides of the minor parties are arguing that a minority government is better than the alternative of a Labor or Coalition majority government. Holmes à Court referred to those people who intend to vote outside the two major parties as ‘double haters’ who are likely to bring about a minority government.

Writing in the Unfiltered newsletter, Alexandra Marshall had this to say:

Michael de Percy has been down in Canberra keeping an eye on Simon Holmes à Court at the National Press Club. The billionaire green energy enthusiast wasted no time in calling the Coalition the ‘greatest threat to climate action’ and then, bizarrely, took aim at their nuclear plan. Here is what he said…

My latest in The Spectator Australia, Simon says Teals keen for costly minority government.

Trumpet of Patriots announces a Liberal election platform

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Clive Palmer addressing the National Press Club of Australia, 13 March 2025
 

From the National Press Club: Clive Palmer’s address on March 13 delivered the first tranche of the Trumpet of Patriot’s election platform. While one regional newspaper took issue with humans being either male or female, conservative voters will find little to disagree with in what is otherwise a common-sense policy platform.

Writing in the Unfiltered newsletter, Alexandra Marshall had this to say:

Michael de Percy endured the National Press Club of Australia for a good cause. He was able to put a question to Clive Palmer on the topic of the upcoming Federal Election. Palmer was his usual bombastic self, wasting no time telling the room exactly what he thinks of the politicians in Canberra.

Writing in the Morning Double Shot newsletter, Terry Barnes had this to say:

Our Michael de Percy and Clive Palmer are on a unity ticket on one thing; they both lump the Liberal and Labor parties together as the Uniparty. Having heard and questioned Palmer at the National Press Club last week, de Percy came away feeling that Palmer’s platform is far more Menzian than the Liberals’. He worries about the conservative vote being fractured between the Coalition, Palmer and various others, and he’s right. The only way to be sure of beating Labor and its further Left allies is to not to waste primary votes in ‘protest’ at the Liberals’ flabbiness, and use them to ensure that Labor is voted out in May, and not 2028. If that means swallowing hard and voting Liberal or National, don’t rule it out if you’re unhappy with them.

My latest in The Spectator Australia, Trumpet of Patriots announces a Liberal election platform.

Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ trumps ‘the science’

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Trump's art of the deal trumps the science.

Being on the receiving end of a deal with the most powerful person in the world must be quite disarming. Trump was already the ultimate deal-maker. Now as the leader of the free world, his power to make deals is unsurpassed in history. When Trump offers a deal, he starts with an extreme position that drives the experts mad. This is not crazy; it is the art of the deal.

Writing in the Unfiltered newsletter, Alexandra Marshall had this to say:
Michael de Percy says we should trust the ‘art of the deal’ over ‘the science’ when it comes to politics. After all, Michael argues, Trump has done more in two months than the experts have in years – which means there must be some wisdom to his actions.
Writing in the Morning Double Shot newsletter, Terry Barnes had this to say:
As a political scientist, Michael de Percy is a great admirer of how Donald Trump is doing things, Trump upending all he sees as America’s enemies, both foreign and domestic. De Percy argues that Trump’s love of transactional deal-making, er, trumps evidence-based policy advocated by self-appointed experts. ‘Trump’s art of the deal is the most democratic thing we have seen since “the experts” told us to trust “the science”’, he writes. Some will agree; some will disagree. Certainly, Trump 47’s approach to policy-making and governing is unique. There’s been nothing like him before, and there’ll be nothing like him again.
My latest in The Spectator Australia, Trump’s ‘art of the deal’ trumps ‘the science’.

Can the green energy dream power Australia's future industries?

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Australia's green hydrogen dream is rapidly coming undone
 

Australia's energy policy for heavy industries such as steel production are based on storing renewable energy as green hydrogen. However, steel production is energy intensive and green hydrogen is proving to be difficult to commercialise, let alone produce, store, and transport. The renewable energy link to Indonesia and Singapore, based on the plan for the Australian Renewable Energy Hub in the Pilbara, has been replaced by the idea that green hydrogen can be converted to green ammonia for transportation, and converted back to hydrogen on the other side. Again, the process is energy intensive. Add to the energy demands that will be created by data centres and artificial intelligence, the scaling up of energy production is unlikely to be met without nuclear. The green energy dream is unlikely to materialise and is proving unworkable.

The slides from my presentation are available below.

Woke West stands with Ukraine, Trump deals with reality

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Trump's diplomacy is based on realpolitik, not idealpolitik.

The rules-based world order has been destroyed by the Wokerati. The United Nations, an institution designed to address the shortcomings of the League of Nations, is exhausted and no longer fit for purpose. Nato is an under-funded paper tiger. The United States, still the richest and most powerful nation in the history of humanity, is quickly recovering from its near-death experience under the Democrats and their self-hating and divisive ideology. Meanwhile, the rest of the West dithers.

Trump’s attempt to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war is based on realpolitik, taking into account the actual circumstances rather than adopting a particular moral stance. Against this backdrop, the rest of the West, which is largely broke and unable to defend itself, has based its response on idealpolitik, a belief that ideals can be achieved through politics. In practice, Trump’s approach is based on reason, while the rest of the West’s response to global affairs is naively based on emotion.

It’s not hard to tell how this will work out.

Writing in the Morning Double Shot newsletter, Terry Barnes had this to say:

As Trump freezes all military aid to Ukraine in retaliation against Zelensky’s perceived recalcitrance, making the likelihood of a ‘final push’ Russian spring offensive still greater, Rebecca Weisser has a timely piece looking at the good, the bad and the ugly of Trump’s domestic and foreign policy. As for that foreign policy, she says (but I summarise) there’s no theory, just chaos. Michael de Percy takes a contrary view, and argues that Western leaders, including Anthony Albanese, take an idealistic and anti-Trump view of Zelensky and Ukraine, while Trump plays a realist and calculated political chess game. Ramesh Thakur outlines the alleged rap sheet against Zelensky and Ukraine, while echoing de Percy’s policy argument and endorsing Trump’s actions, as he sees them.

My latest in The Spectator Australia, Woke West stands with Ukraine, Trump deals with reality.

The Greens’ policies are about to come crashing down

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The Greens want to recreate Australia in their own cultural Marxist image

Senator Hanson-Young’s inability to answer simple questions about Australia’s defence is representative of the Greens’ naïve worldview. In my opinion, Greens politicians are cultural Marxists propped up by the system of democracy and capitalism they hate. That same system effectively pays them to have a platform for talking nonsense. And it’s getting worse.

As the realities of economics and global politics hit home, the Greens have not only been found wanting, but completely wrong.

My lates in The Spectator Australia, The Greens’ policies are about to come crashing down.

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